Assuming that all Democrats vote for cloture, which at this point is very far from certain, the 60th and determining vote could be from Republican Senator Specter who already has crossed party lines to vote with the Obama administration to support the stimulus package. Because of internal Pennsylvania Republican politics, there has been tremendous speculation about his political future and how it may impact his vote. The latest from Daily Kos, PA-Sen: Specter inches closer to leaving the GOP.
Although saying he won’t leave the Republican party, Specter now is openly raising the possibility of running as an Independent, a la Lieberman, but caucusing with the Republican party. He can’t do it exactly as Lieberman did, since Pennsylvania has a sore loser law, so he would have to run as an independent rather than first trying (and losing) the Republican primary.
While the politics is fascinating, more important his how it will impact his vote on EFCA. To me, nothing about his situation makes it look more likely that he will change his position from last Congress and now vote against cloture.